Peninsula’s Mike Li and Brandon Lin have claimed first place in the last regular season Elo ranking! Peninsula recently won the 2025 Cal Invitational, one of the most competitive tournaments of the semester. Berkeley Prep RV claim second place, after being in first for the previous four rankings. Peninsula KX takes third place, and Montgomery Bell HM jumps up a spot from fifth to fourth after making an appearance in the finals at Cal. Westwood AB bumped down to fifth place but still remains in striking distance of the top 4 ranks.
This Elo model correctly predicted the winner 84.357% of the time. The aff win rate slightly decreased, now at 48.436%. The previous model had the win rate at 48.467%. As a reminder, our model collects data from all TOC bid tournaments.
| Team | ELO | Aff_ELO | Neg_ELO | Aff_Rounds | Neg_Rounds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Peninsula LL | 2573.506 | 2474.297 | 2660.805 | 37 | 35 |
| 2 | Berkeley Prep RV | 2555.018 | 2535.376 | 2493.242 | 37 | 34 |
| 3 | Peninsula KX | 2548.82 | 2553.931 | 2467.687 | 24 | 22 |
| 4 | Montgomery Bell HM | 2533.705 | 2488.912 | 2495.64 | 28 | 34 |
| 5 | Westwood BA | 2506.716 | 2606.416 | 2337.724 | 28 | 30 |
| 6 | Glenbrook South WB | 2486.917 | 2538.74 | 2406.602 | 28 | 33 |
| 7 | Head-Royce AP | 2471.153 | 2741.463 | 2242.772 | 24 | 24 |
| 8 | Taipei American YL | 2467.863 | 2485.852 | 2411.173 | 24 | 21 |
| 9 | Greenhill CL | 2455.802 | 2619.043 | 2217.624 | 35 | 28 |
| 10 | Liberal Arts and Science BS | 2415.409 | 2374.827 | 2400.535 | 35 | 34 |
| 11 | Bellarmine DD | 2389.792 | 2306.077 | 2434.47 | 28 | 23 |
| 12 | Northview CT | 2382.57 | 2365.296 | 2325.955 | 28 | 23 |
| 13 | Montgomery Bell JS | 2375.833 | 2278.814 | 2377.347 | 35 | 30 |
| 14 | Kenwood WS | 2375.191 | 2320.539 | 2338.286 | 41 | 36 |
| 15 | Liberal Arts and Science BF | 2374.397 | 2370.041 | 2280.415 | 29 | 31 |
| 16 | Montgomery Bell MM | 2373.081 | 2297.244 | 2310.092 | 7 | 9 |
| 17 | Bellarmine AQ | 2359.202 | 2159.89 | 2551.175 | 25 | 24 |
| 18 | Whitney Young MB | 2338.557 | 2258.671 | 2315.192 | 33 | 35 |
| 19 | St Mark’s School of Texas PJ | 2335.811 | 2491.018 | 2171.137 | 27 | 22 |
| 20 | L C Anderson WS | 2333.834 | 2202.296 | 2365.915 | 20 | 24 |
| 21 | Greenhill BH | 2311.638 | 2353.276 | 2047.67 | 32 | 25 |
| 22 | Montgomery Bell BT | 2311.032 | 2169.161 | 2308.292 | 28 | 29 |
| 23 | Glenbrook North CR | 2294.887 | 2307.125 | 2217.841 | 34 | 39 |
| 24 | Liberal Arts and Science CK | 2286.588 | 2205.032 | 2304.241 | 25 | 30 |
| 25 | Newark Science AO | 2271.336 | 2323.402 | 2116.279 | 41 | 40 |
| 26 | Peninsula KK | 2265.079 | 2216.118 | 2235.964 | 29 | 33 |
| 27 | Mamaroneck MP | 2264.742 | 2077.099 | 2365.845 | 14 | 12 |
| 28 | Peninsula YW | 2262.128 | 2078.826 | 2402.89 | 7 | 7 |
| 29 | Blue Valley North PS | 2258.841 | 1965.6 | 2381.423 | 10 | 12 |
| 30 | Woodward CM | 2258.286 | 2185.828 | 2239.252 | 21 | 25 |
| 31 | Berkeley Prep RZ | 2256.223 | 2813.748 | 1738.795 | 7 | 7 |
| 32 | Liberal Arts and Science BV | 2244.348 | 2146.513 | 2164.016 | 9 | 9 |
| 33 | Montgomery Bell RP | 2237.243 | 2291.606 | 2087.747 | 27 | 27 |
| 34 | New Trier MP | 2230.425 | 2066.042 | 2257.533 | 34 | 40 |
| 35 | St Paul Central UB | 2230.374 | 2145.398 | 2242.791 | 31 | 28 |
| 36 | Damien-St. Lucy’s PP | 2227.562 | 2132.605 | 2266.727 | 33 | 34 |
| 37 | Notre Dame AM | 2227.024 | 2072.434 | 2331.663 | 26 | 24 |
| 38 | College Prep AB | 2224.752 | 2148.039 | 2242.448 | 31 | 24 |
| 39 | Shawnee Mission East PL | 2222.26 | 2100.816 | 2214.015 | 19 | 22 |
| 40 | Mamaroneck GA | 2218.9 | 2104.556 | 2238.453 | 21 | 23 |
| 41 | Glenbrook South MP | 2216.932 | 2204.502 | 2106.111 | 23 | 28 |
| 42 | Blue Valley Southwest PC | 2214.537 | 2166.679 | 2190.158 | 26 | 22 |
| 43 | Montgomery Bell SL | 2212.858 | 2227.508 | 2085.281 | 28 | 29 |
| 44 | Coppell SJ | 2212.095 | 2113.264 | 2196.235 | 24 | 31 |
| 45 | Mamaroneck FC | 2201.86 | 2103.135 | 2214.741 | 21 | 25 |
| 46 | Coppell TB | 2197.976 | 2104.544 | 2139.491 | 11 | 12 |
| 47 | Dallas Highland Park CB | 2193.635 | 2081.459 | 2148.824 | 24 | 27 |
| 48 | BASIS DC AS | 2191.228 | 2169.387 | 2123.394 | 12 | 11 |
| 49 | University OM | 2177.713 | 2383.585 | 1888.822 | 11 | 11 |
| 50 | Lowell CL | 2176.873 | 2138.968 | 2103.716 | 32 | 26 |
| 51 | Blue Valley West SV | 2169.443 | 2155.604 | 2049.456 | 15 | 10 |
| 52 | Berkeley Prep GR | 2168.323 | 1904.992 | 2351.928 | 14 | 14 |
| 53 | Brooklyn Technical LJ | 2166.903 | 1924.198 | 2273.721 | 13 | 21 |
| 54 | Berkeley Prep NY | 2166.835 | 2106.734 | 2113.889 | 27 | 28 |
| 55 | Sonoma YK | 2165.041 | 2116.053 | 2064.496 | 29 | 35 |
| 56 | Lexington HW | 2163.872 | 1920.466 | 2316.998 | 21 | 22 |
| 57 | Westwood SG | 2158.391 | 2177.27 | 2071.631 | 27 | 22 |
| 58 | Washburn Rural CN | 2157.758 | 2278.453 | 2053.235 | 29 | 26 |
| 59 | Bronx Science EZ | 2154.556 | 2219.817 | 2043.934 | 9 | 6 |
| 60 | College Prep GJ | 2153.666 | 2192.845 | 1987.016 | 21 | 17 |
| 61 | Rowland Hall GH | 2150.902 | 2077.17 | 2120.601 | 31 | 28 |
| 62 | Quarry Lane YY | 2149.635 | 1995.219 | 2228.246 | 7 | 7 |
| 63 | Niles North MK | 2149.193 | 2244.617 | 1984.916 | 25 | 32 |
| 64 | Calvert Hall SW | 2146.843 | 2089.498 | 2107.404 | 16 | 14 |
| 65 | Denmark Independent LB | 2144.863 | 2107.453 | 2072.325 | 7 | 7 |
| 66 | Pace MG | 2143.463 | 2082.614 | 2036.592 | 35 | 29 |
| 67 | Wylie E. Groves XC | 2142.601 | 2041.307 | 2150.531 | 34 | 28 |
| 68 | Blue Valley West VS | 2137.997 | 1971.629 | 2231.902 | 8 | 8 |
| 69 | Georgetown Day MT | 2133.099 | 1945.944 | 2301.456 | 7 | 7 |
| 70 | Westwood GK | 2132.655 | 2046.476 | 2059.752 | 25 | 23 |
| 71 | Glenbrook South KZ | 2131.1 | 2040.512 | 2120.03 | 31 | 32 |
| 72 | Little Rock Central LW | 2120.49 | 1952.562 | 2119.498 | 29 | 33 |
| 73 | Quarry Lane AC | 2120.289 | 2134.358 | 2025.28 | 30 | 29 |
| 74 | Quarry Lane AM | 2116.084 | 2042.708 | 2120.577 | 24 | 28 |
| 75 | Liberal Arts and Science LM | 2114.918 | 2103.065 | 2091.811 | 26 | 26 |
| 76 | Archbishop Mitty MR | 2111.079 | 2167.816 | 1988.511 | 22 | 21 |
| 77 | Johns Creek GV | 2107.399 | 2100.362 | 2008.281 | 40 | 40 |
| 78 | Washburn Rural CH | 2106.323 | 1979.77 | 2095.283 | 26 | 31 |
| 79 | Liberal Arts and Science RL | 2104.384 | 2043.773 | 2036.263 | 15 | 18 |
| 80 | Niles North CS | 2103.546 | 2084.901 | 2039.373 | 39 | 33 |
| 81 | Barstow SH | 2102.952 | 2559.461 | 1610.446 | 6 | 7 |
| 82 | New Trier SY | 2102.476 | 2091.521 | 2010.959 | 25 | 19 |
| 83 | Baltimore City WM | 2095.855 | 2113.168 | 2052.405 | 24 | 29 |
| 84 | Bellarmine LO | 2083.466 | 1970.128 | 2044.431 | 15 | 14 |
| 85 | Bellarmine CG | 2083.067 | 1808.071 | 2310.383 | 13 | 18 |
| 86 | Westwood SA | 2082.265 | 1880.806 | 2086.032 | 12 | 14 |
| 87 | Bellarmine HR | 2081.735 | 1813.115 | 2218.713 | 13 | 15 |
| 88 | Northstar Academy HS – Newark MA | 2081.294 | 1902.794 | 2133.971 | 8 | 8 |
| 89 | Mamaroneck TM | 2079.891 | 1865.259 | 2180.993 | 24 | 25 |
| 90 | Success Academy HSLA-MANHATTAN PW | 2074.802 | 2045.594 | 2040.533 | 10 | 11 |
| 91 | Clear Springs SG | 2074.011 | 1991.941 | 2049.716 | 23 | 29 |
| 92 | Minneapolis South BW | 2072.442 | 2258.154 | 1785.506 | 28 | 27 |
| 93 | Peninsula DY | 2067.993 | 1946.407 | 2039.951 | 32 | 32 |
| 94 | Brophy PP | 2065.967 | 2030.682 | 1979.031 | 33 | 28 |
| 95 | Lovejoy PW | 2062.878 | 1900.947 | 1973.646 | 6 | 8 |
| 96 | Walter Payton BR | 2061.3 | 1961.668 | 2066.727 | 19 | 20 |
| 97 | St Mark’s School of Texas DP | 2060.228 | 1729.259 | 2217.361 | 7 | 7 |
| 98 | Alpharetta MM | 2056.255 | 1925.748 | 2020.601 | 31 | 31 |
| 99 | Liberal Arts and Science LR | 2052.089 | 1986.566 | 2021.326 | 30 | 30 |
| 100 | Greenhill AJ | 2051.305 | 1935.874 | 2108.701 | 16 | 16 |