After our pilot Elo ranking, we noticed a few errors in our calculation that we’ve now corrected. We appreciate all the feedback on both the formula we use to calculate Elo and the errors in our dataset! If you have any more suggestions, please let us know here.

1. Tournament Weighting.

The most potent criticism of a pure, zero-sum Elo ranking system for debate lies in the nature of debate competition itself. Most other competitive events can easily rely on the neutrality of Elo, but the average difficulty of a debate round varies tournament to tournament. To account for tournament variance, we’ve altered our Elo model to use the bid level of the tournament as a scaling factor, meaning wins at an octas bid tournament are weighted more heavily than wins at a finals bid tournament. The multipliers for our system are calculated as follows:

  • Finals bid = Elo adjustments are multiplied by .625
  • Semis bid = Elo adjustments are multiplied by .75
  • Quarters bid = Elo adjustments are multiplied by .875
  • Octas bid = Elo adjustments are multiplied by 1.0

Maintaining a fixed point exchange for every round with no adjustment for the overall difficulty of the tournament can create incentives for teams to only attend as many smaller tournaments as possible. By scaling Elo gains and losses based on tournament difficulty, the system ensures that strong performances in larger tournaments are rewarded and that teams can remain competitive in the rankings without needing to attend an excessive number of tournaments throughout the year.

2. Duplicate Teams

Another issue the pilot Elo ranking encountered was the presence of duplicate teams in our data set. This error was caused primarily by teams being entered at tournaments under different team codes because the letters were switched. The new rating should have corrected those errors. If there are any duplicates we missed, please let us know in the form above.

3. Bid Tournaments

While not an error per se, our first ranking only included data from tournaments up to Greenhill and Washburn Rural. The new rating includes results from every TOC bid tournament to date.

For those who are curious, we will post new rankings after the following tournaments:

  1. Heart of Texas Invitational – October 25, 2024
  2. University of Michigan HS Debate Tournament – November 8, 2024
  3. Glenbrooks Speech and Debate Tournament – November 23, 2024
  4. John Edie Holiday Debates Hosted by the Blake School – December 14, 2024
  5. Barkley Forum for High Schools – January 24, 2025
  6. Cal Invitational UC Berkeley – February 15, 2025

The combination of those updates to our model bring the accuracy of our Elo ratings to 91.180%.

TeamELOAff_ELONeg_ELOAff_RoundsNeg_Rounds
1Montgomery Bell HM2988.722386.7282691.22847
2Northview CT2789.2782435.3422619.02865
3Peninsula KX2770.3972535.9232560.88119
4Greenhill CL2737.7912798.2551902.91644
5Glenbrook South WB2732.1942546.2322481.475910
6Peninsula LL2709.9882487.3222504.904127
7Berkeley Prep RV2689.4662895.9331992.302108
8Taipei American LY2667.1082587.9592484.20554
9Bellarmine AQ2663.0832273.7732675.32799
10Bellarmine DD2652.6482558.3322435.541108
11Liberal Arts and Science BF2648.5172194.6412884.141215
12Mamaroneck CF2605.2172353.0482234.05544
13L C Anderson WS2570.7592447.6422475.27464
14Washburn Rural CN2567.52549.9322196.644
15Westwood AB2549.8442570.7362111.98844
16Woodward MP2526.2132475.8842267.38646
17Montgomery Bell SJ2524.2972297.8242482.16697
18Mamaroneck MS2520.1332285.582260.00734
19St Mark's School of Texas PJ2495.3772510.042048.66264
20Newark Science OA2486.8352243.6732450.01879
21Montgomery Bell BT2472.3651989.252398.06443
22Liberal Arts and Science BS2460.1142248.3882236.70544
23Liberal Arts and Science CK2447.9132344.9071948.37563
24Kenwood WS2421.7232218.4762404.20888
25Quarry Lane AM2412.0052073.2932277.59935
26Berkeley Prep NY2395.6362219.6072149.59577
27Westwood KG2378.1142074.2532290.05353
28Lexington LM2376.8091831.0252466.05945
29Montgomery Bell PR2375.5622253.342184.98189
30Peninsula KK2375.3892325.6042097.8378
31Wylie E. Groves CX2374.3682169.7472224.942116
32Whitney Young SV2369.8722426.6822213.75344
33Quarry Lane YY2344.662196.4572293.40534
34Lexington WH2330.842047.2252384.32244
35Berkeley Prep RZ2320.4582780.451526.98777
36Niles North CS2309.1092376.92047.671108
37Coppell JS2306.7322014.212177.87779
38Lowell CL2296.1942153.692126.81554
39Bellarmine CG2293.5012268.0062134.16235
40Head-Royce AJ2291.761814.2182043.98734
41Head-Royce PC2288.5871928.2262190.30243
42Glenbrook South MP2283.1762379.1412037.536610
43Denmark BR2258.752054.3511991.18743
44Blue Valley West VS2241.5542151.1282150.98844
45Calvert Hall SW2231.372324.3821842.77763
46Mamaroneck AG2231.0411786.9611972.35534
47Jesuit LR2217.3571831.3652203.38577
48Dallas Highland Park CB2215.362266.8331863.98244
49Glenbrook South ZK2210.9391903.7511795.70243
50Niles North KM2210.6132276.811983.203611
51Brooklyn Technical JL2205.9611588.3412270.90235
52Gunn Independent KB2205.531759.3832246.41136
53Olathe North CF2201.0831807.2112018.40434
54Baltimore City WM2192.6212078.9482019.7535
55Blue Valley Southwest DT2181.5082046.4552336.50934
56Peninsula WY2179.1611988.0382017.76943
57Niles North SP2178.2142121.1362035.31367
58Damien-St. Lucy's PP2173.4741950.9192139.47197
59Liberal Arts and Science LM2166.0062167.2581970.61878
60Montgomery Bell SL2163.5332039.5392038.768
61Washburn Rural CH2162.571961.5842108.01378
62Newark Science OO2158.0031986.6071834.27653
63Little Rock Central LW2157.9261925.7782134.57486
64SWW NN2153.8722076.8811719.88443
65New Trier SW2151.3892188.4341852.0211011
66Liberal Arts and Science LR2144.5481677.3092131.96733
67Winston Churchill MP2138.7291860.8942004.36676
68College Prep AB2130.7422049.8361937.33844
69Walter Payton BS2128.2691860.0332206.74453
70Notre Dame AM2114.4291913.2981869.05335
71Alpharetta MM2112.9311845.4432097.57587
72New Trier HJ2111.2121868.6722062.3831011
73Shawnee Mission West WS2102.821990.0512019.68935
74Coppell TB2099.1561923.8112055.20879
75Johns Creek VG20962043.1921749.61444
76Lovejoy PW2092.6461825.1021686.24943
77Huntington DS2092.3451845.382059.90535
78Whitney Young BM2084.1241973.821944.36444
79New Trier MP2081.5292308.1461841.74477
80Yerba Buena QN2070.5732035.2951859.39944
81Peninsula PY2068.6271919.8461942.69133
82Westminster VZ2060.7481899.921762.87986
83Peninsula DY2059.2671834.6041931.01568
84West HS SLC AK2053.521944.3691931.75343
85St Mark's School of Texas PH2039.9291951.3381763.59433
86Georgetown Day RW2039.681520.1621934.39333
87Westminster LP2038.0391944.0912035.3461111
88Greenhill BH2037.551974.8411729.37434
89Lawrence Free State FH2036.0261815.6162096.79977
90Pace GM2034.7411825.881926.0541210
91Westwood AS2011.9421277.6221863.58533
92Rowland Hall GH2008.1141755.5141883.36386
93Mamaroneck MT2007.3071948.6251988.83533
94Brophy PP2006.8341724.0921587.47733
95Lane Tech ZQ2002.031611.092106.67235
96Mamaroneck MP1996.8311847.7431761.82734
97Head-Royce DW1995.5142224.9621057.71533
98Baltimore City AP1993.8581839.4531914.2643
99Woodward CM1984.31874.621957.58634
100Mamaroneck RW1978.4811646.9191972.12633

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