After our pilot Elo ranking, we noticed a few errors in our calculation that we’ve now corrected. We appreciate all the feedback on both the formula we use to calculate Elo and the errors in our dataset! If you have any more suggestions, please let us know here.
1. Tournament Weighting.
The most potent criticism of a pure, zero-sum Elo ranking system for debate lies in the nature of debate competition itself. Most other competitive events can easily rely on the neutrality of Elo, but the average difficulty of a debate round varies tournament to tournament. To account for tournament variance, we’ve altered our Elo model to use the bid level of the tournament as a scaling factor, meaning wins at an octas bid tournament are weighted more heavily than wins at a finals bid tournament. The multipliers for our system are calculated as follows:
- Finals bid = Elo adjustments are multiplied by .625
- Semis bid = Elo adjustments are multiplied by .75
- Quarters bid = Elo adjustments are multiplied by .875
- Octas bid = Elo adjustments are multiplied by 1.0
Maintaining a fixed point exchange for every round with no adjustment for the overall difficulty of the tournament can create incentives for teams to only attend as many smaller tournaments as possible. By scaling Elo gains and losses based on tournament difficulty, the system ensures that strong performances in larger tournaments are rewarded and that teams can remain competitive in the rankings without needing to attend an excessive number of tournaments throughout the year.
2. Duplicate Teams
Another issue the pilot Elo ranking encountered was the presence of duplicate teams in our data set. This error was caused primarily by teams being entered at tournaments under different team codes because the letters were switched. The new rating should have corrected those errors. If there are any duplicates we missed, please let us know in the form above.
3. Bid Tournaments
While not an error per se, our first ranking only included data from tournaments up to Greenhill and Washburn Rural. The new rating includes results from every TOC bid tournament to date.
For those who are curious, we will post new rankings after the following tournaments:
- Heart of Texas Invitational – October 25, 2024
- University of Michigan HS Debate Tournament – November 8, 2024
- Glenbrooks Speech and Debate Tournament – November 23, 2024
- John Edie Holiday Debates Hosted by the Blake School – December 14, 2024
- Barkley Forum for High Schools – January 24, 2025
- Cal Invitational UC Berkeley – February 15, 2025
The combination of those updates to our model bring the accuracy of our Elo ratings to 91.180%.
Team | ELO | Aff_ELO | Neg_ELO | Aff_Rounds | Neg_Rounds | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Montgomery Bell HM | 2988.72 | 2386.728 | 2691.228 | 4 | 7 |
2 | Northview CT | 2789.278 | 2435.342 | 2619.028 | 6 | 5 |
3 | Peninsula KX | 2770.397 | 2535.923 | 2560.88 | 11 | 9 |
4 | Greenhill CL | 2737.791 | 2798.255 | 1902.916 | 4 | 4 |
5 | Glenbrook South WB | 2732.194 | 2546.232 | 2481.475 | 9 | 10 |
6 | Peninsula LL | 2709.988 | 2487.322 | 2504.904 | 12 | 7 |
7 | Berkeley Prep RV | 2689.466 | 2895.933 | 1992.302 | 10 | 8 |
8 | Taipei American LY | 2667.108 | 2587.959 | 2484.205 | 5 | 4 |
9 | Bellarmine AQ | 2663.083 | 2273.773 | 2675.327 | 9 | 9 |
10 | Bellarmine DD | 2652.648 | 2558.332 | 2435.541 | 10 | 8 |
11 | Liberal Arts and Science BF | 2648.517 | 2194.641 | 2884.14 | 12 | 15 |
12 | Mamaroneck CF | 2605.217 | 2353.048 | 2234.055 | 4 | 4 |
13 | L C Anderson WS | 2570.759 | 2447.642 | 2475.274 | 6 | 4 |
14 | Washburn Rural CN | 2567.5 | 2549.932 | 2196.6 | 4 | 4 |
15 | Westwood AB | 2549.844 | 2570.736 | 2111.988 | 4 | 4 |
16 | Woodward MP | 2526.213 | 2475.884 | 2267.386 | 4 | 6 |
17 | Montgomery Bell SJ | 2524.297 | 2297.824 | 2482.166 | 9 | 7 |
18 | Mamaroneck MS | 2520.133 | 2285.58 | 2260.007 | 3 | 4 |
19 | St Mark's School of Texas PJ | 2495.377 | 2510.04 | 2048.662 | 6 | 4 |
20 | Newark Science OA | 2486.835 | 2243.673 | 2450.018 | 7 | 9 |
21 | Montgomery Bell BT | 2472.365 | 1989.25 | 2398.064 | 4 | 3 |
22 | Liberal Arts and Science BS | 2460.114 | 2248.388 | 2236.705 | 4 | 4 |
23 | Liberal Arts and Science CK | 2447.913 | 2344.907 | 1948.375 | 6 | 3 |
24 | Kenwood WS | 2421.723 | 2218.476 | 2404.208 | 8 | 8 |
25 | Quarry Lane AM | 2412.005 | 2073.293 | 2277.599 | 3 | 5 |
26 | Berkeley Prep NY | 2395.636 | 2219.607 | 2149.595 | 7 | 7 |
27 | Westwood KG | 2378.114 | 2074.253 | 2290.053 | 5 | 3 |
28 | Lexington LM | 2376.809 | 1831.025 | 2466.059 | 4 | 5 |
29 | Montgomery Bell PR | 2375.562 | 2253.34 | 2184.981 | 8 | 9 |
30 | Peninsula KK | 2375.389 | 2325.604 | 2097.83 | 7 | 8 |
31 | Wylie E. Groves CX | 2374.368 | 2169.747 | 2224.942 | 11 | 6 |
32 | Whitney Young SV | 2369.872 | 2426.682 | 2213.753 | 4 | 4 |
33 | Quarry Lane YY | 2344.66 | 2196.457 | 2293.405 | 3 | 4 |
34 | Lexington WH | 2330.84 | 2047.225 | 2384.322 | 4 | 4 |
35 | Berkeley Prep RZ | 2320.458 | 2780.45 | 1526.987 | 7 | 7 |
36 | Niles North CS | 2309.109 | 2376.9 | 2047.671 | 10 | 8 |
37 | Coppell JS | 2306.732 | 2014.21 | 2177.877 | 7 | 9 |
38 | Lowell CL | 2296.194 | 2153.69 | 2126.815 | 5 | 4 |
39 | Bellarmine CG | 2293.501 | 2268.006 | 2134.162 | 3 | 5 |
40 | Head-Royce AJ | 2291.76 | 1814.218 | 2043.987 | 3 | 4 |
41 | Head-Royce PC | 2288.587 | 1928.226 | 2190.302 | 4 | 3 |
42 | Glenbrook South MP | 2283.176 | 2379.141 | 2037.536 | 6 | 10 |
43 | Denmark BR | 2258.75 | 2054.351 | 1991.187 | 4 | 3 |
44 | Blue Valley West VS | 2241.554 | 2151.128 | 2150.988 | 4 | 4 |
45 | Calvert Hall SW | 2231.37 | 2324.382 | 1842.777 | 6 | 3 |
46 | Mamaroneck AG | 2231.041 | 1786.961 | 1972.355 | 3 | 4 |
47 | Jesuit LR | 2217.357 | 1831.365 | 2203.385 | 7 | 7 |
48 | Dallas Highland Park CB | 2215.36 | 2266.833 | 1863.982 | 4 | 4 |
49 | Glenbrook South ZK | 2210.939 | 1903.751 | 1795.702 | 4 | 3 |
50 | Niles North KM | 2210.613 | 2276.81 | 1983.203 | 6 | 11 |
51 | Brooklyn Technical JL | 2205.961 | 1588.341 | 2270.902 | 3 | 5 |
52 | Gunn Independent KB | 2205.53 | 1759.383 | 2246.411 | 3 | 6 |
53 | Olathe North CF | 2201.083 | 1807.211 | 2018.404 | 3 | 4 |
54 | Baltimore City WM | 2192.621 | 2078.948 | 2019.75 | 3 | 5 |
55 | Blue Valley Southwest DT | 2181.508 | 2046.455 | 2336.509 | 3 | 4 |
56 | Peninsula WY | 2179.161 | 1988.038 | 2017.769 | 4 | 3 |
57 | Niles North SP | 2178.214 | 2121.136 | 2035.313 | 6 | 7 |
58 | Damien-St. Lucy's PP | 2173.474 | 1950.919 | 2139.471 | 9 | 7 |
59 | Liberal Arts and Science LM | 2166.006 | 2167.258 | 1970.618 | 7 | 8 |
60 | Montgomery Bell SL | 2163.533 | 2039.539 | 2038.7 | 6 | 8 |
61 | Washburn Rural CH | 2162.57 | 1961.584 | 2108.013 | 7 | 8 |
62 | Newark Science OO | 2158.003 | 1986.607 | 1834.276 | 5 | 3 |
63 | Little Rock Central LW | 2157.926 | 1925.778 | 2134.574 | 8 | 6 |
64 | SWW NN | 2153.872 | 2076.881 | 1719.884 | 4 | 3 |
65 | New Trier SW | 2151.389 | 2188.434 | 1852.021 | 10 | 11 |
66 | Liberal Arts and Science LR | 2144.548 | 1677.309 | 2131.967 | 3 | 3 |
67 | Winston Churchill MP | 2138.729 | 1860.894 | 2004.366 | 7 | 6 |
68 | College Prep AB | 2130.742 | 2049.836 | 1937.338 | 4 | 4 |
69 | Walter Payton BS | 2128.269 | 1860.033 | 2206.744 | 5 | 3 |
70 | Notre Dame AM | 2114.429 | 1913.298 | 1869.053 | 3 | 5 |
71 | Alpharetta MM | 2112.931 | 1845.443 | 2097.575 | 8 | 7 |
72 | New Trier HJ | 2111.212 | 1868.672 | 2062.383 | 10 | 11 |
73 | Shawnee Mission West WS | 2102.82 | 1990.051 | 2019.689 | 3 | 5 |
74 | Coppell TB | 2099.156 | 1923.811 | 2055.208 | 7 | 9 |
75 | Johns Creek VG | 2096 | 2043.192 | 1749.614 | 4 | 4 |
76 | Lovejoy PW | 2092.646 | 1825.102 | 1686.249 | 4 | 3 |
77 | Huntington DS | 2092.345 | 1845.38 | 2059.905 | 3 | 5 |
78 | Whitney Young BM | 2084.124 | 1973.82 | 1944.364 | 4 | 4 |
79 | New Trier MP | 2081.529 | 2308.146 | 1841.744 | 7 | 7 |
80 | Yerba Buena QN | 2070.573 | 2035.295 | 1859.399 | 4 | 4 |
81 | Peninsula PY | 2068.627 | 1919.846 | 1942.691 | 3 | 3 |
82 | Westminster VZ | 2060.748 | 1899.92 | 1762.879 | 8 | 6 |
83 | Peninsula DY | 2059.267 | 1834.604 | 1931.015 | 6 | 8 |
84 | West HS SLC AK | 2053.52 | 1944.369 | 1931.753 | 4 | 3 |
85 | St Mark's School of Texas PH | 2039.929 | 1951.338 | 1763.594 | 3 | 3 |
86 | Georgetown Day RW | 2039.68 | 1520.162 | 1934.393 | 3 | 3 |
87 | Westminster LP | 2038.039 | 1944.091 | 2035.346 | 11 | 11 |
88 | Greenhill BH | 2037.55 | 1974.841 | 1729.374 | 3 | 4 |
89 | Lawrence Free State FH | 2036.026 | 1815.616 | 2096.799 | 7 | 7 |
90 | Pace GM | 2034.741 | 1825.88 | 1926.054 | 12 | 10 |
91 | Westwood AS | 2011.942 | 1277.622 | 1863.585 | 3 | 3 |
92 | Rowland Hall GH | 2008.114 | 1755.514 | 1883.363 | 8 | 6 |
93 | Mamaroneck MT | 2007.307 | 1948.625 | 1988.835 | 3 | 3 |
94 | Brophy PP | 2006.834 | 1724.092 | 1587.477 | 3 | 3 |
95 | Lane Tech ZQ | 2002.03 | 1611.09 | 2106.672 | 3 | 5 |
96 | Mamaroneck MP | 1996.831 | 1847.743 | 1761.827 | 3 | 4 |
97 | Head-Royce DW | 1995.514 | 2224.962 | 1057.715 | 3 | 3 |
98 | Baltimore City AP | 1993.858 | 1839.453 | 1914.26 | 4 | 3 |
99 | Woodward CM | 1984.3 | 1874.62 | 1957.586 | 3 | 4 |
100 | Mamaroneck RW | 1978.481 | 1646.919 | 1972.126 | 3 | 3 |